A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
