Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
